An alternative to the bachelor’s thesis: František Starý: Country Risk and Its Determinants: An Empirical Analysis of the Czech Republic
Alternative to a bachelor's thesis
Country Risk and Its Determinants: An Empirical Analysis of the Czech Republic
Riziko země a jeho determinanty: Empirická analýza České republiky
Abstract
Práce analyzuje makroekonomické a tržní determinanty rizika České republiky prostřednictvím výnosového spreadu pětiletých státních dluhopisů vůči Německu a credit default swapu za období 2008-2024 s využitím kvantilové regrese. Výsledky ukazují, že tržní faktory, zejména akciový index PX a směnný kurz EUR/USD, hrají konzistentnější roli než makroekonomické fundamenty.
Abstract
The paper analyses macroeconomic and market determinants of Czech country risk using five-year sovereign bond yield spread against Germany and credit default swap over the period 2008-2024 via quantile regression. Results show that market factors, particularly stock market returns and the EUR/USD exchange rate, play a more consistent role than macroeconomic fundamentals.
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