Diplomová práce

Strategic hedging in the foreign policy of small states: A Case Study of Hungary’s Foreign Policy Navigation Between Russia and the European Union

Petra Dorka Salamon
Anotace

The thesis examines whether Hungary’s foreign policy between 2014 and 2024 was consistent with the concept of strategic hedging and how this strategy was influenced by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The analysis is based on Cheng-Chwee Kuik’s framework, which has been adapted to the specific constraints of the EU membership. The research uses a qualitative case study method, with directed …více

Abstract

The thesis examines whether Hungary’s foreign policy between 2014 and 2024 was consistent with the concept of strategic hedging and how this strategy was influenced by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The analysis is based on Cheng-Chwee Kuik’s framework, which has been adapted to the specific constraints of the EU membership. The research uses a qualitative case study method, with directed …více

Zadání práce
The thesis focuses on Hungary's foreign policy between 2014 and 2024, a period of significant geopolitical change, especially in the context of Hungary's balancing act with Russia and the European Union. The year 2014 is the starting point, when Hungary's hedging strategy began to emerge more clearly in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, especially in terms of its energy relations with Russia and its divergent domestic and foreign policy positions within the EU. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, however, marks a crucial turning point in Hungary's foreign policy, as the country's strategic hedging strategy has become more visible and critical than ever before. The pre- and post-2022 breakdown provides an opportunity to assess how Hungary has adjusted its balancing strategy in the light of tightening EU sanctions against Russia, the changing geopolitical situation and increased pressure for closer alignment with EU and NATO security policies.
The thesis examines how Hungary's strategic hedging position has evolved over this period and identifies key indicators of this behaviour, using the 5 key aspects of hedging by Kuik. Particular attention will be payed not only to the period 2014-2024 but also to the increased dynamics following the events of February 2022 as a turning point.
Sources of data: documents, websides of Hungarian governmental institutions, statistics (trade, business relations between Hungary and Russia), content analysis of the key speeches of Viktor Orbán and Hungarian ministers of foreign affairs
The central research question of the thesis is: How is Hungary's foreign policy aligned with the strategic hedging framework between 2014 and 2024, and what are the key indicators of this hedging behaviour in its relations with Russia and the EU? Has Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 brought some significant changes in this policy  by the? The research does this by dividing the analysis into different periods, separately examining the presence of strategic hedging indicators in Hungary's small-state position and foreign policy from 2014-2022 and post-February 2022.
 
Hypotheses:
Hungary’s Hedging Strategy Is an Example of Small-State Behaviour in a Multipolar World
Hungary’s Foreign Policy Hedging Allows It to Maximize Leverage in EU-Russia Relations.
Práce zkontrolována:
19. 5. 2025 13:28, Mgr. Petra Kuchyňková, Ph.D., učo 14001
Plný text práce
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Jazyk práce
angličtina angličtina
Termín obhajoby
3. 6. 2025
Práce byla úspěšně obhájena

Vedoucí

Mgr. Petra Kuchyňková, Ph.D., učo 14001
KMVES FSS MU

Oponent

Mgr. Bc. Tomáš Řepa, Ph.D., učo 178975
KMVES FSS MU

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